ISSN 2673-494X
Two-page Reports on Science

Cuban Sci. 2024, 5(1): 7–8

Published on 8 Jul 2025 PDF (327K)
Insights into Young Children’s Probability Reasoning
Federico Abraham Ceruti, Maybı́ Morell-Ruiz
  • Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay
  • Department of Philosophy and Cognitive Science, Lund University, Sweden
“A pilot study with eight children (ages 6–8) explored their use of visual probabilistic information in a task where Lucy lemur plays the roulette. Children estimated happiness of Lucy and chose games based on probabilities, showing consistent choices matching the two modalities and no clear preference for specific probability values. Results indicate that young children can process complex visual probabilistic information and make consistent estimates, laying the groundwork for further research on probabilistic reasoning.”

References

  1. Morell Ruiz, M., Abraham Ceruti, F., Haake, M., Gulz, A., Investigating Probabilistic Reasoning in Young Children: Insights from the Lucy Task Pilot Study, Proceedings of the 19th SweCog Conference (2024) P37, Stockholm
  2. Schlottmann, A., Children’s probability intuitions: Understanding the expected value of complex gambles, Child Development, 72 1 (2001) 103–122
  3. Schlottmann, A., & Wilkening, F., Judgment and decision making in young children, Cambridge University Press (2011)
  4. Gualtieri, S., Attisano, E., & Denison, S., Young children’s use of probabilistic reliability and base-rates in decision-making, PLOS ONE, 17 (5) (2022) e0268790